When the Suns play the Lakers Monday night for the Western Conference sub-championship, we will see something we have not seen all season: both teams at full strength and well rested. There are reasons for Suns fans to hope, and reasons to fear.

Physical match-ups:

Hope: The Suns overall team speed will, over time, run the Lakers off the court. After all, a smaller OKC Thunder team out-rebounded them in several games in round one. The Suns are even faster than the Thunder, and better equipped to abuse their speed.

Fear: The Lakers overall size advantage will, over time, doom the Suns. Single most cited Lakers advantage by most pundits. It’s not just that they have big guys, but they have big guys who can play, and a system that can get them the ball in the paint.

Hope: There is no guarantee that Laker’s center Andrew Bynum could run with the Suns even if he was healthy, which he is not. With him on the bench, the Laker’s lack credible depth at center. And, assuming Pau Gasol will have his hands full guarding Stoudemire (a safe assumption), none of the Lakers’ bigs have the speed the chase Channing Frye out into three-point-land.

Fear: The Lakers have the experience and discipline to force a slower tempo game, pounding the ball into the paint, where the puny Suns will be squashed like bugs.

Hope: The Suns have the speed and the overall high basketball IQ (perhaps the only team beside the Celtics that can match the Lakers in this regard) to force a faster pace, where their high shooting percentage, averaged over a higher number of shot attempts, adds up to doom for the defending champions.

Point Guard:

Hope: Steve Nash is a two-time MVP and Derek Fisher isn’t.

Fear: Derek Fisher is a quality defender and Steve Nash isn’t.

Hope: Nash had his best quarter in the play-offs with one eye swollen shut.

Shooting Guard:

Hope: Jason Richardson’s new-found all-star quality game will work Kobe Bryant on both ends of the floor.

Fear: Kobe will score 40 points anyway – 20 of them in the fourth quarter.

Hope: Suns win 90% of the time when J-Rich scores 20+, and the Lakers aren’t game-planning him the way the Suns game-plan Bryant.

Small Forward:

Hope: Grant Hill can put slap some quality defense on Kobe Bryant.

Fear: Ron Artest can slap suffocating defense on anyone he wants.

Hope: Artest does not like chasing guards – where most of the Suns offense comes from.

Power Forward:

Hope: Stoudemire!

Fear: Gasol!

Hope: STAT is having a career play-offs in terms of maturity.

Center:

Hope: Robin Lopez is healthy(ish) giving the suns both size and mobility at center.

Fear: Bynum is still bigger – and in game shape.

Hope: If Frye hits his threes, that will not matter.

Bench:

Hope: The Suns bench is ten deep (maybe eleven counting Collins – who will see some minutes), which counts a lot in an up-tempo series. The bench scored 50 points in the Suns regular season win over LA.

Fear: The Lakers have the experience and discipline to force a slower tempo game, where their bench will not be  as necessary (Lamar Odom has been their only reliable performer off the bench in these play-offs).

Hope: The Suns are still ten deep.

Offense:

Hope: the Suns have the best offense, team shooting percentage and 3-point percentages in the league. Their pick-and-roll game is the best in the league.

Fear: The Lakers have one of the best shooting percentage defenses in the league, and the best three-point defense. Lakers coach Phil Jackson has made a legend of unraveling legendary pick-and-rolls.

Hope: San Antonio had great defensive stats as well, and couldn’t hold the Suns under 107 points in any of the four games.

Defense:

Hope: the Suns’ defense is better than it has been in a generation.

Fear: Better than awful does not win championships.

Hope: When you can score, better than awful might still be enough.

Intangibles:

Hope: Fun and Gun with bonus defense is working. The Suns have over-achieved just getting here, and all the pressure in on the Lakers.

Fear: Kobe Bryant has been reminding himself all week that the Suns were the last team to eliminate the Lakers short of the NBA Finals. The Lakers are defending champions for a reason, and will not beat themselves.

Hope: So what? Bryant always brings it. He can’t beat the Suns by himself ( we know – he’s tried). The Suns have been playing some of the best team ball in these play-offs, and every night it’s a different hero.

Once again, the Suns are facing the world champion #$@!ing Lakers, and all of our hopes and fears suit up with them.

If someone said to me at the beginning of the season that the Suns would beat the Spurs in a playoff match, I would have said “Sure, it might be possible.” If said person then said “Oh, and the Suns willl sweep them,” I would have laughed them off. “Impossible,” I would say. “The Spurs have too much pride.”

Well, I guess the Spurs have swallowed their pride. The improbable has happened. I’m not sure if I’m ready to wake up. For the Suns and their fans, beating the Spurs is almost as good as winning the Championship. I’ll take the championship, too. However, that road leads through the Lakers, and they have just finished off the Jazz with a 20 point win. It’ll be a tough matchup, for sure, and I’m not making any predictions.

Back to the Spurs, though. Tortured Suns fans were on edge after finishing off the Blazers. We were sure it’d be at least six, maybe seven games, to finish the series. Oh, Suns fans figured we could win against the Spurs this year, but we never figured them to go out like this.

Sure, you can say Ginobili has a broken nose, Parker had a sore shoulder, and Duncan had a gimpy knee. But injuries happen. The Suns happened to be in relatively good health as the playoffs started, except for Robin Lopez. The Spurs still had the fight and the will in them, but their bodies couldn’t close the deal.

So, how did this go down? I’m not going to rehash each game, but it was a different player each game. The first two games, it was Nash and Stoudemire and Jason Richardson. In game three, when it looked the Suns might lose the first one of the series, Dragic and the bench stepped up and put the Spurs away. And in game four, it was Nash and Stoudemire again, even though Nash only had one eye. But overall, it was a huge team effort. Every player that went out on the court put in the effort and contributed in some way, either with hustle, scoring, rebounding, or playing smart. Even Barbosa hit timely shots and helped put the Spurs away. And it was not only the team effort, but the game style. Sure, the Suns were above 100 points in each game, so you can be mistaken for thinking this is the same old Seven Seconds or Less D’Antoni team. But it is and it isn’t. The offense is there, but it isn’t designed to be a quick strike anymore. What’s more, there is defense. Actual defense. Channing Frye and Stoudemire taking on Duncan. Blocking out. Even Steve Nash is running at shooters. For many of the games with the Spurs, the Suns ground it out until they could go on a run to bust the game open. The ability to score while playing at a slower pace and have the bench come in and contribute are really the few things that have differentiated this team from those of D’Antoni. And it seems to be working. Gentry demands defense and smart play. He is from the Popovich school of coaching, not the D’Antoni country club school. These changes have made the Suns the Finals contender they are today.

So, now let’s look forward. Suns and Lakers. The Suns have dismissed the Lakers the last two times they met in the playoffs, but the Lakers, besides Kobe Bryant, looked a lot different then. Now they have Gasol and Bynum, two huge bodies. They still have Kobe, of course, and Odom. But they also have Artest, who may get the defensive start on Nash. I think Nash wins that matchup, because it’ll perpetually leave Derek Fisher in the post with Grant Hill, which the Suns would be advised to take advantage of until the Lakers switch defenders.

Coming from not making the playoffs to the Western Conference Finals feels so good as a Suns fan. Maybe this is the Suns year. OUR year. One can dream. And, occassionally, dreams do come true.

Our Phoenix Suns find themselves in a dominant position against this version of the Spurs. I’m sure the Spurs will win at least one game, but I don’t see them winning the series. The fact is, the Spurs played their game on Wednesday and still got beat. With Gonobili banged up and Duncan not at full strength, it will take a minor miracle for them to win four out of five against the surging Suns.

These suns are like the team they met in 2008, but a totally different team. There is an effective bench, which means the starters can rest for the big push, there is defense. Heck, I even saw Nash contest shots! And there is Jason Richardson, an upgrade at the shooting guard over Raja Bell (no offense, Raja, we still love you for clotheslining Kobe). And of course, there is Jared Dudley.

This series is the Suns’ to lose. I am calling for the sweep, but really, we’ll take four wins against the Spurs any way we can get them.

Sure, it was only the first game. But a win is a win, especially when it’s against the Spurs. And in the playoffs. Steve Nash looked like he would be all but unstoppable for the first half of the game. He abused George Hill and the Spurs defense for 21 first half points. Awesome!

It was the big three – the OTHER big three – for the Suns that carried the game. I’m talking about Nash, Stoudemire, and Richardson. Nash scored 33 and handed out 10 assists, Stoudmire had 23 and 13 rebounds, and Jason Richardson came through in clutch time. When the Suns needed baskets in the fourth, there was J-Rich hitting a trey or scoring on a fast-break.

All in all, the Suns gave us a pretty good scare in the later stages of the game when the Spurs tied it up. But the aforementioned clutch baskets, and the always-accurate free-throw shooting of Steve Nash, put the Spurs away.

A few observations. I like Dragic defending Tony Parker. Parker can’t run away from Dragic as easily as he does Steve Nash. Unfortunately, to stay on the court Dragic is going to have to produce on the offensive end, something he didn’t do with enough consistency. Channing Frye hit a couple of big three-pointers and played generally decent defense on Duncan when called upon. Duncan himself didn’t look like the Duncan of old, perhaps hobbled by a gimpy knee which was aggravated when Dragic accidentally rolled into it. Hey, if Horry can hip-check Nash into the sidelines, Dragic can roll into Duncan’s leg.

Although Tony Parker came off the bench for this game, I fully expect him to start in Game Two. Especially with the way Nash abused Hill in the first few minutes of the game.

I hope one of the Suns accidentally bumps Ginobili in the nose. That guy is a pest, and I would say has no business playing basketball except that he seems to be so effective at it. I believe I saw him revert a bit to his old ways of just trying to get contact so that he can get a foul call, but thankfully there was not much of it and he tended to play more straight-up basketball and not try to look like he was getting fouled every other trip down the court.

I hope to maybe see some Earl Clark on Duncan at some point, but it might not happen in this series. Robin Lopez is also a maybe to play at some point in this series, which would change the Suns game and make them more effective in the paint. I can see Duncan having at least some difficulty guarding him, and I can see Lopez making Duncan work a little more for his points on the other end.

Kudos to the Suns for not collapsing when the Spurs made their run. Perhaps this is the year that, finally, the Suns get over the Spurs hump and get back to the Western Conference Championships. I would love to see it. All of us faithful Suns fans would love to see it. Let’s just hope our dreams don’t get hip-checked then suspended into oblivion.

Even Barkley had to admit it: without Brandon Roy, the Suns are better than the Blazers. I think he had to choke down a donut afterwards to feel better about it. But let’s face it, even WITH Brandon Roy in his current condition, the Suns are better. Roy is, at best, 75%, and his lateral movement and quickness are clearly affected. I know he wants to put in a big showing and look like a hero because it’s the playoffs, but he probably shouldn’t risk further injury to his knee. Especially in light of the very little he contributed tonight.

That said, the Suns broke off a huge one. Kudos to the bench, with Frye coming up with 20, including a 4-point play, and Dudley going for 19 including 5 three pointers. Dragic drove to the basket on numerous occassions, looking like a left-handed version of ‘ol number 7, Kevin Johnson. That got the Blazer’s big men in foul trouble, and extended the time that Nash rested. Even Barbosa looked good tonight.

When the game started and the Suns were down 18-4, I was incredulous. It was looking bad. But little by little, they got back into it. Jason Richardson looked hungry, skying in for rebounds and battling amongst the huge Blazers front line. Stoudemire had some nifty moves. Although Nash clearly is not 100% right now, he got it going in the second and third quarter for the Suns. His best pass: right through Aldridge’s arms into the waiting hands of Stoudemire for a dunk. Awesome!

So, in a seven game series, the team that has a 3-2 lead wins the series 83% of the time according to some statistic I just pulled out of my butt. I don’t think the Blazers have enough fight left in them to beat the Suns again. There was a Marcus Camby sighting, but limited by foul trouble he was a non-factor.

So, all in all, things are looking good for the Suns. They need to go to Portland and finish this off. Nash and crew will get a two-day rest before game six. However, if the Spurs close out the Mavs this week, the Suns will face the Spurs this weekend. Blah!